Finally arrived in Japan. Serious blogging will start presently.
First impressions? The sakura blossoms are doing wonderfully, the DPJ less so. Already saw two political rallies by candidates against them. Here's one in Akihabara by Minna no Tou.
Saturday, April 3, 2010
Friday, March 12, 2010
The proposal that nobody liked
So, there you have it: months of Cabinet deliberations behind closed doors have produced a draft Basic Law on Global Warming. Even though the atmosphere, no pun intended, of the discussion must have been way more conducive to the creation of an ambitious law on climate change, the contents of the discussion were by no means a foregone conclusion.
Where to even begin?! Naoshima Masayuki, Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry, pushed his Ministry's view (Japanese) that putting an absolute cap on emissions would hurt industries exposed to international competition. Green groups, predictably enough, popped a vein over this (Japanese), since there is not much point in having such a cap-and-trade scheme under which you are rewarded for improving your energy efficiency while your actual emissions go up as a result of increased production levels.
Meanwhile Fukushima Mizuho, president of the Social Democratic Party of Japan, a coallition partner in the DPJ-led government, and Minister of State for Consumer Affairs and Food Safety, Social Affairs, and Gender Equality, voiced her opposition (Japanese) to the expantion of Japan's nuclear industry. This, for those not really following the discussion, is absolutely bonkers, since, while Japan is planning to open 14 new reactors by 2030, it needs (Point Carbon - subscription required) 20 new ones to replace the capacity of aged reactors. Japan's nuclear reactors are famously operating under capacity (buy the book if you don't believe me) and they are the only thing that prevent Japan from becoming a smoke-belching coal monster (expect a post on this in the future).
This is not even mentioning the strong pushes from the Keidanren and the Japanese Iron and Steel Federation (both Japanese) for more discussion and deliberation that would be needed in order to make sure that the Japanese people really, really got what kind of terrible costs being ambitious on climate would actually entail.
Well, the draft has been submitted to the Diet. We at the Climate Household will not say anything too bad about the draft, mainly because (a) we've been waiting for something like this since the dawn of time and (b) we have not read through the entire thing yet - only an outline. But, yes, intensity-based emissions trading for some industries is in it (BOO!), nuclear power is in it, too (YAY!), feed-in tariffs for renewables are to be expanded (*standing ovation*), and cutting emissions by 25% from their 1990 levels by 2020 is reafirmed - conditional on other big international actors playing ball and without specifying what percentage of those cuts will be achieved domestically (...yay?).
All in all, there is something to love and something to hate in this draft for everybody. Unless you are the Keindanren and their ilk, who are going hatehateHATE it. Sankei, a newspaper that loves to hate the current administration, minced no words (Japanese) about the doom, death and destruction that would befall the nation if it were adopted: this law "will force a great burden on the people's lives and enterprises of this nation". It goes on to quote Keidanren chairman Fujio Mitarai's somewhat stylistically incongruent hiss: "I wish for them to show adequately the effects and contents of this law and the influence it will have on employment and people's lifestyles a bit more [sic], and pursue the dialogue with all strata of society". It then goes on rattling off some numbers about the extraordinary costs of such a policy, which, for the uninitiated (Japanese - page 11 if you can't be bothered to read through the entire thing), are based on numbers that assume that the Japanese economy will go on an average of basically 2% a year until 2020 and then 1.2% until 2030. (In case you were on Mars for more than a decade: since 1992 Japan has had 5 years in which it managed to eek out year-on-year growth in excess of 2%, as opposed to 4 where it was negative. 2009: -5.3%. Ask these guys if you do not believe me.) Anyway, what the Sankei Shinbun says is all terrible and too bad and shikata ga nai.
Overall, the draft law is not ideal, but politics never is, so we will not lambast it too much. However, intensity-based targets for some industries, no doubt the most energy-intensive and therefore most carbon-polluting ones, are a big disappointment. Actually one wonders whether Mr Mitarai is not secretely having a field day over this. There is a Voluntary Action Plan on Climate Change for the Keidanren out there, aiming for reduce its emissions by 7% below 1990 by 2012, and, even without the horrible financial crisis at the moment, industrial bodies seem to be in compliance. It remains to be seen what kind of intensity target the Keidanren will manage to negotiate for itself. Time for the DPJ to get their heads out of their asses and realize that they are having the wool pulled over their eyes. How you can pledge -25% and then eliminate the need for the greatest emitters to cut their emissions escapes our comprehension. (*tongue-in-cheek* Maybe they are willing to go for some voluntary production restraints?!)
You can expect some friendly fire from the SDP. But the SDP is irrelevant to passing the law in the Lower House and holds only 5 seats out 242 in the Upper House, versus the DPJ's own 109. Unless the DPJ bungles something and sees its popularity plummet severely before this summer's Upper House elections, it should be able to afford to steamroll this past Ms Fukushima. Anyway, such a scenario is inconceivable. Totally.
Some tugging at it will no doubt happen from the lately completely spastic LDP, who will no doubt choose this moment to stand up for the common man. Interestingly, the LDP's sidekicks for the past couple of electoral cycles, the New Kōmeitō, intend to put forth a position that is much more ambitious on climate: none of this intesity bull for them, and auctioning of allowances starting 2020. If anything the Kōmeitō might succeed on dragging the bill into more ambitious territory than the current draft would let one believe.
Anyway. Grab some popcorn. This is going to be fun to watch.
Where to even begin?! Naoshima Masayuki, Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry, pushed his Ministry's view (Japanese) that putting an absolute cap on emissions would hurt industries exposed to international competition. Green groups, predictably enough, popped a vein over this (Japanese), since there is not much point in having such a cap-and-trade scheme under which you are rewarded for improving your energy efficiency while your actual emissions go up as a result of increased production levels.
Meanwhile Fukushima Mizuho, president of the Social Democratic Party of Japan, a coallition partner in the DPJ-led government, and Minister of State for Consumer Affairs and Food Safety, Social Affairs, and Gender Equality, voiced her opposition (Japanese) to the expantion of Japan's nuclear industry. This, for those not really following the discussion, is absolutely bonkers, since, while Japan is planning to open 14 new reactors by 2030, it needs (Point Carbon - subscription required) 20 new ones to replace the capacity of aged reactors. Japan's nuclear reactors are famously operating under capacity (buy the book if you don't believe me) and they are the only thing that prevent Japan from becoming a smoke-belching coal monster (expect a post on this in the future).
This is not even mentioning the strong pushes from the Keidanren and the Japanese Iron and Steel Federation (both Japanese) for more discussion and deliberation that would be needed in order to make sure that the Japanese people really, really got what kind of terrible costs being ambitious on climate would actually entail.
Well, the draft has been submitted to the Diet. We at the Climate Household will not say anything too bad about the draft, mainly because (a) we've been waiting for something like this since the dawn of time and (b) we have not read through the entire thing yet - only an outline. But, yes, intensity-based emissions trading for some industries is in it (BOO!), nuclear power is in it, too (YAY!), feed-in tariffs for renewables are to be expanded (*standing ovation*), and cutting emissions by 25% from their 1990 levels by 2020 is reafirmed - conditional on other big international actors playing ball and without specifying what percentage of those cuts will be achieved domestically (...yay?).
All in all, there is something to love and something to hate in this draft for everybody. Unless you are the Keindanren and their ilk, who are going hatehateHATE it. Sankei, a newspaper that loves to hate the current administration, minced no words (Japanese) about the doom, death and destruction that would befall the nation if it were adopted: this law "will force a great burden on the people's lives and enterprises of this nation". It goes on to quote Keidanren chairman Fujio Mitarai's somewhat stylistically incongruent hiss: "I wish for them to show adequately the effects and contents of this law and the influence it will have on employment and people's lifestyles a bit more [sic], and pursue the dialogue with all strata of society". It then goes on rattling off some numbers about the extraordinary costs of such a policy, which, for the uninitiated (Japanese - page 11 if you can't be bothered to read through the entire thing), are based on numbers that assume that the Japanese economy will go on an average of basically 2% a year until 2020 and then 1.2% until 2030. (In case you were on Mars for more than a decade: since 1992 Japan has had 5 years in which it managed to eek out year-on-year growth in excess of 2%, as opposed to 4 where it was negative. 2009: -5.3%. Ask these guys if you do not believe me.) Anyway, what the Sankei Shinbun says is all terrible and too bad and shikata ga nai.
Overall, the draft law is not ideal, but politics never is, so we will not lambast it too much. However, intensity-based targets for some industries, no doubt the most energy-intensive and therefore most carbon-polluting ones, are a big disappointment. Actually one wonders whether Mr Mitarai is not secretely having a field day over this. There is a Voluntary Action Plan on Climate Change for the Keidanren out there, aiming for reduce its emissions by 7% below 1990 by 2012, and, even without the horrible financial crisis at the moment, industrial bodies seem to be in compliance. It remains to be seen what kind of intensity target the Keidanren will manage to negotiate for itself. Time for the DPJ to get their heads out of their asses and realize that they are having the wool pulled over their eyes. How you can pledge -25% and then eliminate the need for the greatest emitters to cut their emissions escapes our comprehension. (*tongue-in-cheek* Maybe they are willing to go for some voluntary production restraints?!)
You can expect some friendly fire from the SDP. But the SDP is irrelevant to passing the law in the Lower House and holds only 5 seats out 242 in the Upper House, versus the DPJ's own 109. Unless the DPJ bungles something and sees its popularity plummet severely before this summer's Upper House elections, it should be able to afford to steamroll this past Ms Fukushima. Anyway, such a scenario is inconceivable. Totally.
Some tugging at it will no doubt happen from the lately completely spastic LDP, who will no doubt choose this moment to stand up for the common man. Interestingly, the LDP's sidekicks for the past couple of electoral cycles, the New Kōmeitō, intend to put forth a position that is much more ambitious on climate: none of this intesity bull for them, and auctioning of allowances starting 2020. If anything the Kōmeitō might succeed on dragging the bill into more ambitious territory than the current draft would let one believe.
Anyway. Grab some popcorn. This is going to be fun to watch.
Saturday, February 27, 2010
Why are baddies always better organized?
Changes of guard are symbolically charged events. This is why every day at 11 o’clock the change of guard in front of Buckingham Palace happens with so much pomp and circumstance, in plain sight of thousands of tourists from all over the world, gathered there to gawk at men with unnaturally tall heads prance around with guns.
At the Nippon Keidanren there may be less pomp and circumstance, but what they lack in bearskins they make up for in actual clout. The London change of guards sends only the hearts of sightseers aflutter, but the chairman of the Keidanren, representing upwards of 1600 Japanese companies and economic organizations, tends to carry a tad bit more weight. So little wonder that, when he (so far, only “he”) publicly announces the name of his successor, Japanese business journalists gaze deep into their crystal balls, trying to tease out from the details of the appointment what the future holds in store for Japan.
The appointment of Yonekura Hiromasa to Mitarai Fujio’s position starting May 2010 must have made for some difficult tea leaf reading. As the Mainichi Shinbun points out, Mr Yonekura was not seen by many as a favourite in the race for the position. His connections to the current political establishment are seen as slight (even though that may be a somewhat misleading piece of criticism, given the novelty of the DPJ administration).
His appointment however strikes more seasoned Japan watchers as odd because Mr Yonekura is the Chairman of the Sumitomo Chemical, which belongs to the pre-war Sumitomo zaibatsu. After the end of WWII the US Supreme Commander of Allied Powers made sure to disassemble these Japanese economic conglomerates, which it saw as the initiators of Japanese aggression. The Keidanren has traditionally taken great care not to nominate leaders from the ranks of companies tracing their legacy back to the pre-war zaibatsus. Furthermore, while there is no shortage of such companies, Sumitomo is a Kansai zaibatsu, seen as something of an outsider in a world dominated by Kantō conglomerates, making Mr Yonekura’s appointment even more of a surprise.
The Keidanren has been a very vocal opponent of aggressive mid-term greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets for Japan. Some of its past leaders are said to have been privately more willing to consider international pledges going beyond the -6% relative to 1990 that Japan is committed to for the 2008-2012 period. However, inside the Keidanren high-emission industrial groups (such as the associations of steel, power and cement producers) wield great power behind the scenes, hampering more progressive leaders’ efforts to shift the business federation’s public stance away from this conservative consensus.
Fat chance in finding even this modicum of progressive thinking with Mr Yonekura: after all, he is the chairman of a chemical company, which is one of the Japanese industrial sectors with the highest level of GHG emissions. Being more accommodating for environmental concerns runs directly counter to his power base’s immediate interests. Discussing Japan’s new pledge to decrease its emissions by 25% by the year 2020 relative to the 1990 level with Japanese journalists in Davos, Mr Yonekura argued dismissively on January 27 of this year that the “basis for numbers if wrong”. Similarly, discussing together with the still incumbent Mr Mitarai his desire to “continue the deliberations and dialogue with the government”, he emphasized his desire to “deepen the consultations with the Japanese people” about Japan’s new pledge.
The Keidanren’s exhortations for more thorough consultations with the population are a matter of public record. On February 23, 2010, it has produced a statement calling for a clear evaluation of the impact the implementation of the upcoming basic law on global warming would have on the population and enterprises, and requesting a clear policy road-map from the government that would gain the “understanding and the agreement of the people”.
Similar views are reflected by Japan Iron and Steel Federation, who had also gone on the record on December 25, 2009, with its opposition to putting the new pledge into law, to setting up a mandatory nation-wide emissions trading scheme, and to levying a carbon tax absent of a thorough “deliberative process”. While being specifically an association of iron and steel producers, JISF also somewhat mystifyingly took advantage of the opportunity to voice its concerns about the introduction of feed-in tariffs for renewable forms of energy absent a good understanding of their influence on electricity prices.
As evidenced by the recent closure announcements for several cement producing facilities, times are hard even for big Keidanren members. Conversely, steel makers are set increase their production, a development set to increase their absolute emissions and increase their unwillingness to have emissions trading systems and carbon taxes imposed upon them. In this economic climate and with this professional background, Mr Yonekura is unlikely to make friends with the current DPJ administration over climate policies. One wonders whether one factor why this dark horse candidate outshone other opponents despite his disadvantages precisely because of his stance on this currently most charged of political matters. It will be interesting to see what kind of strategies he will devise to cope with the policy direction PM Hatoyama announced in September at the United Nations beyond the transparent stalling tactics of generating a popular debate.
The fact is that there never is a good time to impose new costs on businesses. Still, Mr Yonekura’s personal convictions and professional background will likely make him a particularly principled detractor of progressive climate policy, rendering him potentially even more powerful opponent than his predecessors Mssrs Mitarai and Okuda had ever been. One eagerly awaits the promised March announcement of the DPJ’s policy package on climate change. For months the DPJ has prevaricated on this issue. Unable to get dissenting experts to produce fruitful policy recommendations, it has postponed more specific policy announcements on climate already a number of times.
At the Climate House we feel a bit strange agreeing with the more conservative Keidanren, but their request for clear roadmaps does ring true. In Mr Yonekura the DPJ will surely find a formidable foe on climate change. Time for this “mañana, mañana!” approach to policymaking to stop.
At the Nippon Keidanren there may be less pomp and circumstance, but what they lack in bearskins they make up for in actual clout. The London change of guards sends only the hearts of sightseers aflutter, but the chairman of the Keidanren, representing upwards of 1600 Japanese companies and economic organizations, tends to carry a tad bit more weight. So little wonder that, when he (so far, only “he”) publicly announces the name of his successor, Japanese business journalists gaze deep into their crystal balls, trying to tease out from the details of the appointment what the future holds in store for Japan.
The appointment of Yonekura Hiromasa to Mitarai Fujio’s position starting May 2010 must have made for some difficult tea leaf reading. As the Mainichi Shinbun points out, Mr Yonekura was not seen by many as a favourite in the race for the position. His connections to the current political establishment are seen as slight (even though that may be a somewhat misleading piece of criticism, given the novelty of the DPJ administration).
His appointment however strikes more seasoned Japan watchers as odd because Mr Yonekura is the Chairman of the Sumitomo Chemical, which belongs to the pre-war Sumitomo zaibatsu. After the end of WWII the US Supreme Commander of Allied Powers made sure to disassemble these Japanese economic conglomerates, which it saw as the initiators of Japanese aggression. The Keidanren has traditionally taken great care not to nominate leaders from the ranks of companies tracing their legacy back to the pre-war zaibatsus. Furthermore, while there is no shortage of such companies, Sumitomo is a Kansai zaibatsu, seen as something of an outsider in a world dominated by Kantō conglomerates, making Mr Yonekura’s appointment even more of a surprise.
The Keidanren has been a very vocal opponent of aggressive mid-term greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets for Japan. Some of its past leaders are said to have been privately more willing to consider international pledges going beyond the -6% relative to 1990 that Japan is committed to for the 2008-2012 period. However, inside the Keidanren high-emission industrial groups (such as the associations of steel, power and cement producers) wield great power behind the scenes, hampering more progressive leaders’ efforts to shift the business federation’s public stance away from this conservative consensus.
Fat chance in finding even this modicum of progressive thinking with Mr Yonekura: after all, he is the chairman of a chemical company, which is one of the Japanese industrial sectors with the highest level of GHG emissions. Being more accommodating for environmental concerns runs directly counter to his power base’s immediate interests. Discussing Japan’s new pledge to decrease its emissions by 25% by the year 2020 relative to the 1990 level with Japanese journalists in Davos, Mr Yonekura argued dismissively on January 27 of this year that the “basis for numbers if wrong”. Similarly, discussing together with the still incumbent Mr Mitarai his desire to “continue the deliberations and dialogue with the government”, he emphasized his desire to “deepen the consultations with the Japanese people” about Japan’s new pledge.
The Keidanren’s exhortations for more thorough consultations with the population are a matter of public record. On February 23, 2010, it has produced a statement calling for a clear evaluation of the impact the implementation of the upcoming basic law on global warming would have on the population and enterprises, and requesting a clear policy road-map from the government that would gain the “understanding and the agreement of the people”.
Similar views are reflected by Japan Iron and Steel Federation, who had also gone on the record on December 25, 2009, with its opposition to putting the new pledge into law, to setting up a mandatory nation-wide emissions trading scheme, and to levying a carbon tax absent of a thorough “deliberative process”. While being specifically an association of iron and steel producers, JISF also somewhat mystifyingly took advantage of the opportunity to voice its concerns about the introduction of feed-in tariffs for renewable forms of energy absent a good understanding of their influence on electricity prices.
As evidenced by the recent closure announcements for several cement producing facilities, times are hard even for big Keidanren members. Conversely, steel makers are set increase their production, a development set to increase their absolute emissions and increase their unwillingness to have emissions trading systems and carbon taxes imposed upon them. In this economic climate and with this professional background, Mr Yonekura is unlikely to make friends with the current DPJ administration over climate policies. One wonders whether one factor why this dark horse candidate outshone other opponents despite his disadvantages precisely because of his stance on this currently most charged of political matters. It will be interesting to see what kind of strategies he will devise to cope with the policy direction PM Hatoyama announced in September at the United Nations beyond the transparent stalling tactics of generating a popular debate.
The fact is that there never is a good time to impose new costs on businesses. Still, Mr Yonekura’s personal convictions and professional background will likely make him a particularly principled detractor of progressive climate policy, rendering him potentially even more powerful opponent than his predecessors Mssrs Mitarai and Okuda had ever been. One eagerly awaits the promised March announcement of the DPJ’s policy package on climate change. For months the DPJ has prevaricated on this issue. Unable to get dissenting experts to produce fruitful policy recommendations, it has postponed more specific policy announcements on climate already a number of times.
At the Climate House we feel a bit strange agreeing with the more conservative Keidanren, but their request for clear roadmaps does ring true. In Mr Yonekura the DPJ will surely find a formidable foe on climate change. Time for this “mañana, mañana!” approach to policymaking to stop.
Tuesday, February 16, 2010
Man your damned posts, DPJ!
So the DPJ has already had a couple of days running the show. We were all pretty impressed here in the Climate Household when PM Hatoyama announced in September in New York that Japan would pledge to lop as much as 25% off its 1990 emissions level by 2020. That, as the good people at the World Resources Institute will inform you, is potentially the toughest target faced by any of the Annex I countries that carry weight in terms of emissions.
In a picture-book big-power rendering of the age-old "I'll show you mine if you show me yours" game, Japan's new target is conditional on the other Big Boys (read: US, PRC, India) committing to shouldering a comparable burden in mitigating anthropogenic climate change in their respective domestic policies, as well. But excitement and alacrity was not in short supply at the Hatoyamas', who set about promising all sorts of mandatory emissions trading schemes, green taxes and generalized feed-in tariffs for all forms of renewable energy.
The rumour mill would have it that the mechanism through which the DPJ acquired its green streak was through the shared sensitivity to climate matters of both current Foreign Minister Okada Katsuya and his State Secretary Fukuyama Tetsurō. Okada, while still Secretary General of the DPJ in August, famously told the Keidanren to go and take a hike, as "We must make cuts based on scientific knowledge at any cost, instead of just doing what we can" (credit for this quote goes to Point Carbon's Hisane Masaki). Meanwhile, the current Minister of Environment, Ozawa Sakihito (no relation of party kingpin Ozawa Ichirō), is said to be a newcomer to the topic of climate change. (Such is fate: Okada is a real DPJ heavy weight and was duly granted MOFA, whereas Environment is an orphan ministry that has to scrape by with the crumbs the more senior ministries will let it have.)
So, after more than three months in power, what does the DPJ have to show in terms of climate policy? The government's task force entrusted with climate policy has been feverishly at work, but Japan's éminences grises, some of which are said to be still faithful to the ancien régime, cannot seem to agree on much. Already in the autumn Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry Naoshima Masayuki tempered Ozawa's enthusiasm saying the ETS plans would have to wait for 2011. And that is no surprise when the Party movers-and-shakers are busy touring China with their private flying circus, apologizing to the neighbours for ruining their lawn during the last party, dreaming up some ganj-fueled ideas about how to run the country, or talking darkly in shadowy gatherings about how the Party's mojo is going down the drain.
Not to worry, Japan has never been a place famed for party discipline. But in the meanwhile there are still some darn big fish to fry in terms of policy, and that goes well beyond climate. As better informed people than me will tell you, the DPJ's lofty electoral manifesto has met the real world and one by one hallowed electoral promises are being revised: gasoline surtaxes, child allowances, highway tolls, elimination of wasteful spending are all on the chopping block.
Last year's Copenhagen climate conference was DOA. Twitching all nervously and blurting out on public means of transportation at helpless fellow passengers about the need to figure out what to do about the damned weather changing is something that only obsessive-compulsive climate people like me are liable to do. I also do feel that it is a bit passé to remind others that "the time is running out", but i can't shake the feeling that it is. Take-home message: Them folk in the DPJ had better start worrying about living up to at least a couple of electoral pledges. On climate specifically they risk looking mighty stupid come November in Mexico, if they showed up with neither concrete policy packages (forgivable in Copenhagen given how recently they had been elected) nor concrete ideas about how to engage the US and the BASIC countries who managed to abduct COP-15 two months ago (forgivable perhaps as well due to too much waiting for the US Senate to put on its make-up).
But, seriously, guys? Get cracking! If you don't get your act together and act, others will, and then you, and i, and the entire world can kiss the pretty mochi-flavoured -25% good-bye faster than you can say "Kangaete mimasen ka?".
In a picture-book big-power rendering of the age-old "I'll show you mine if you show me yours" game, Japan's new target is conditional on the other Big Boys (read: US, PRC, India) committing to shouldering a comparable burden in mitigating anthropogenic climate change in their respective domestic policies, as well. But excitement and alacrity was not in short supply at the Hatoyamas', who set about promising all sorts of mandatory emissions trading schemes, green taxes and generalized feed-in tariffs for all forms of renewable energy.
The rumour mill would have it that the mechanism through which the DPJ acquired its green streak was through the shared sensitivity to climate matters of both current Foreign Minister Okada Katsuya and his State Secretary Fukuyama Tetsurō. Okada, while still Secretary General of the DPJ in August, famously told the Keidanren to go and take a hike, as "We must make cuts based on scientific knowledge at any cost, instead of just doing what we can" (credit for this quote goes to Point Carbon's Hisane Masaki). Meanwhile, the current Minister of Environment, Ozawa Sakihito (no relation of party kingpin Ozawa Ichirō), is said to be a newcomer to the topic of climate change. (Such is fate: Okada is a real DPJ heavy weight and was duly granted MOFA, whereas Environment is an orphan ministry that has to scrape by with the crumbs the more senior ministries will let it have.)
So, after more than three months in power, what does the DPJ have to show in terms of climate policy? The government's task force entrusted with climate policy has been feverishly at work, but Japan's éminences grises, some of which are said to be still faithful to the ancien régime, cannot seem to agree on much. Already in the autumn Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry Naoshima Masayuki tempered Ozawa's enthusiasm saying the ETS plans would have to wait for 2011. And that is no surprise when the Party movers-and-shakers are busy touring China with their private flying circus, apologizing to the neighbours for ruining their lawn during the last party, dreaming up some ganj-fueled ideas about how to run the country, or talking darkly in shadowy gatherings about how the Party's mojo is going down the drain.
Not to worry, Japan has never been a place famed for party discipline. But in the meanwhile there are still some darn big fish to fry in terms of policy, and that goes well beyond climate. As better informed people than me will tell you, the DPJ's lofty electoral manifesto has met the real world and one by one hallowed electoral promises are being revised: gasoline surtaxes, child allowances, highway tolls, elimination of wasteful spending are all on the chopping block.
Last year's Copenhagen climate conference was DOA. Twitching all nervously and blurting out on public means of transportation at helpless fellow passengers about the need to figure out what to do about the damned weather changing is something that only obsessive-compulsive climate people like me are liable to do. I also do feel that it is a bit passé to remind others that "the time is running out", but i can't shake the feeling that it is. Take-home message: Them folk in the DPJ had better start worrying about living up to at least a couple of electoral pledges. On climate specifically they risk looking mighty stupid come November in Mexico, if they showed up with neither concrete policy packages (forgivable in Copenhagen given how recently they had been elected) nor concrete ideas about how to engage the US and the BASIC countries who managed to abduct COP-15 two months ago (forgivable perhaps as well due to too much waiting for the US Senate to put on its make-up).
But, seriously, guys? Get cracking! If you don't get your act together and act, others will, and then you, and i, and the entire world can kiss the pretty mochi-flavoured -25% good-bye faster than you can say "Kangaete mimasen ka?".
Monday, February 1, 2010
In the beginning...
...God created the Heavens and the Earth.
Let us hope that there will be less blatant plagiarism in the future.
To be clear:
1. I am not Japanese. Neither am i yet in Japan, yet this will change soon.
2. This is very definitely a semi-professional blog. This means i get to speak any which way i want over here.
3. I do not work on behalf of any government, corporation or NGO. My ideas are my own. I am also very new to this, so my ideas may be also be wrong. Caveat emptor.
4. I am not a climate scientist. I do not deal in equations, but in the way people peddle these equations to each other - always keeping my fingers crossed for the greater good. One Planet to house them all sorta stuff.
5. I know a small smattering of things about climate politics and an even smaller smattering about Japanese politics. But you know how it is: have laptop, will blog. This means that i am armed and dangerous. Especially to myself.
6. Which brings us to the last point: You don't really need to know yet who i am - not yet, in any case. This will in all likelihood change. But the gaijin reading the Earth Negotiations Bulletin while wolfing down gyouzas in some Tokyo hole-in-the-wall near you is probably me.
Now: Let's see if there will be light, and if it will be good.
Let us hope that there will be less blatant plagiarism in the future.
To be clear:
1. I am not Japanese. Neither am i yet in Japan, yet this will change soon.
2. This is very definitely a semi-professional blog. This means i get to speak any which way i want over here.
3. I do not work on behalf of any government, corporation or NGO. My ideas are my own. I am also very new to this, so my ideas may be also be wrong. Caveat emptor.
4. I am not a climate scientist. I do not deal in equations, but in the way people peddle these equations to each other - always keeping my fingers crossed for the greater good. One Planet to house them all sorta stuff.
5. I know a small smattering of things about climate politics and an even smaller smattering about Japanese politics. But you know how it is: have laptop, will blog. This means that i am armed and dangerous. Especially to myself.
6. Which brings us to the last point: You don't really need to know yet who i am - not yet, in any case. This will in all likelihood change. But the gaijin reading the Earth Negotiations Bulletin while wolfing down gyouzas in some Tokyo hole-in-the-wall near you is probably me.
Now: Let's see if there will be light, and if it will be good.
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